If we think about it, there was a drop in participating countries in 2005-2006 but then the highest(?) number in 2007. Then it has been dropping since before we reached 16 in 2014, which was the highest since then. So, it seems like it could follow the same pattern, so 14 is not a bad thing ::
After the Macedonian confirmation we have 13 countries in + 4 very probable / almost sure - Serbia, Montenegro, Russia and San Marino. The question now is whether we could have more than 17 countries in the line up :) Montenegro is already on the list - which means you should edit the number of probable/almost sure to 3. If those 3 remaining countries confirm their participation for this year's edition, the number of countries would be the same as last year...so more than 16 in that case. Besides the ones heavily rumoured, we have also countries like Moldova, Azerbaijan, Greece that have expressed interest to the contest in the past plus Hungary and Germany which are said to have interest as well. Countries outside that list could be classified as a big surprise, although I think that we will have at least one big surpirse.
Some sad news for fans of the Junior Eurovision Song Contest today as the official JESC EBU Twitter feed seemingly confirmed two withdrawals for the contest in Bulgaria.Sweden (who will host the main Eurovision in 2016) and Cyprus both seem unlikely to participate in the 2015 contest, with SVT’s children programming going through restructuring and the Cypriot broadcaster CyBC lacking the funding to enter both contests.